Cowboys nearly pull off first clean sweep in Week 14 stat comps vs Texans

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Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

With DVOA, teams are looking for a higher percentage offensively and a lower percentage defensively.  On offense and special teams, the objective is to perform above league average while defenses are looking to force their opponents to perform below league average.

Information via Football Outsiders.

Offensive DVOA favors the Cowboys with a clean sweep in the three metrics.

• Passing DVOA favors the Cowboys by a massive amount. The Cowboys passing attack has a 14.8% DVOA which ranks 15th overall while the Texans have a -31.3% DVOA which is last.
• Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is sixth in passing DVOA at 16.7%. Texans QB Davis Mills is 32nd with a -28.9% DVOA.
• Rushing DVOA also favors the Cowboys who have the third-best number in the league at 11.2%. The Texans finish 31st with a -22.1% DVOA.
• The dynamic duo of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott both rank in the top 10 in rushing DVOA. Pollard ranks eighth with a DVOA of 12.4% and Elliott ranks 10th with a DVOA of 10.8%. Texans rookie runningback Dameon Pierce ranks 31st with a DVOA of -11.1%.
• Overall offensive DVOA also goes to the Cowboys who rank 11th with a DVOA of 7.4%.  The Texans rank last with a -31.4%.

Offensive Advantage: Cowboys

Reminder, while looking for positive DVOAs on offense, a negative DVOA is better on defense.

• The Cowboys have a significant advantage in passing DVOA, boasting the No.1 ranked passing defense in the league holding opposing passers to -25.2%. The Texans rank 19th with a 9.1% DVOA.
• The Cowboys have had their share of run defensive woes this season but have overall been one of the better run defenses in the league according to analytics, ranking eighth overall with a -13.8% DVOA. The Texans rank 28th with a 5% DVOA.
• Closing out a second clean sweep, the Cowboys lead the NFL in total defensive DVOA at -20.1%. The Texans rank 26th with a DVOA of 7%.

Defensive Advantage: Cowboys

(AP Photo/Brandon Wade)

EPA measures the impact a play has on the likelihood of scoring. With EPA, yardage, field position, and down and distance all weigh in on what the expected net points would be for the situation. As an example, a first and goal at the one-yard line would represent a higher EP-Expected Points than a third and 10 on your own 20 yard line.

EPA is the difference between the Expected Points (EP) at the beginning of the play compared to the end of the play. It measures the plays impact on the score of the game.

Success rate is a measure of how often teams get 40% of the needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down and 100% on third down or fourth down.

EPA figures gathered by rbsdm.

• The Cowboys offense is gaining .065 points over expected per play.  That’s the seventh-best rate in the league. The Texans rank last and are falling .164 points under expectation every snap of offense.
• The Cowboys passing attack has steadily climbed the board with Prescott back in action and now rank 10th in EPA per dropback, gaining .093 points over expected. The Texans, again, rank last with a -.201 EPA per pass.
• As you may expect, the Cowboys run game has been phenomenal this season, to the tune of .033 points added per carry, fourth-best rate in the NFL. The Texans run game ranks 25th with an EPA of -.093 per carry.
• The Cowboys rank right in the middle of the pack in success rate at 45.3%, 15th overall. The Texans offense finds themselves near the bottom with a success rate of 38.1%, 31st overall.

• The Cowboys defense has been one of the more dominant units in the league this season and have a league-leading EPA/play of -.099. The Texans are close to the middle of the pack at 19 with an EPA/play of .031.
• The trend continues in passing defense with the Cowboys ranking first with an EPA of -.131 per dropback. The Texans are allowing opponents to score .089 points over expected.
• Things get a bit more interesting in rushing EPA/play with both team being just two spots apart. The Cowboys rank 19th with a -.053 EPA per carry while the Texans rank 21st with an EPA of .033/play.
• The Cowboys rank fourth in success rate allowed defensively, allowing just 40.9%. The Texans rank 16 spots lower, allowing a success rate of 44.9%.

Defensive Advantage: Cowboys

Overall Advantage: Cowboys ( Cowboys win 8 of 8 EPA categories)

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Toxic differential (also referred to as Toxicity) adds the number of explosive plays an offense generates and subtracts the number of explosive plays a defense allows, then adds the turnover margin.

 Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

• The Texans have a slight edge in explosive passing plays with 39 completions of 20+ yards this season, four more than the Cowboys. The Texans average 3.25 explosive passing plays per game.
• The Cowboys have over twice as many explosive runs as the Texans. The Cowboys have 49 explosive runs of 10 or more yards, averaging 4.08 explosive runs per game. The Texans have 22 explosive runs.
• The Cowboys have done an outstanding job of limiting turnovers with just 12 on the season, an average of one per game. The Texans have allowed 20.

Cowboys: 35 explosive passes+ 49 explosive runs=  84 explosive plays.
84 explosive plays – 12 turnovers= Offensive Toxicity score of 72.

Texans: 39 explosive passes+ 22 explosive runs= 61 explosive plays.
61 explosive plays – 20 turnovers= Offensive Toxicity score of 41.

Offensive Advantage: Cowboys

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

• Both defenses have done a great job of limiting explosive passes this season. The Texans have allowed 30 this season, 2.5 per game. The Cowboys have allowed eight fewer and allowing 1.83 per game.
• Both defenses have had their share of struggles with explosive runs allowed. The Cowboys have surrended one fewer run of 10+ yards than the Texans.
• Takeaways favors the Cowboys by a rather large margin with the Texans having seven fewer takeaways.

Cowboys: 22 explosive passes+ 48 explosive runs= 70 explosive plays.
70 explosive plays – 21 takeaways= Defensive Toxicity score of 49.

Texans: 30 explosive passes+ 49 explosive runs= 79 explosive plays.
79 explosive plays – 14 takeaways= Defensive Toxicity score of 65.

Defensive Advantage: Cowboys

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt, or ANY/A, is a formula which incorporates passing yardage, touchdowns, sacks and interceptions into a per-throw average. ANY/A has a direct correlation to scoring points and as such ranks third in win predictability.

• ANY/A for favors the Cowboys by 1.98 yards per attempt. Dak Prescott’s ANY/A is 6.65 while Texans QB Davis Mills has an ANY/A of 4.63.
• ANY/A against also gives the Cowboys a sizeable advantage as they allow 1.5 yards less per attempt.
• The edge in ANY/A differential goes to the Cowboys who gain 1.66 adjusted net yards per attempt more than they allow. The Texans have a deficit of 1.82 yards per attempt.

Advantage: Cowboys

Toxicity: Cowboys (7 out of 8 with one tie)